Polling and surveys expert Andy Crosby with the UCR School of Public Policy has analyzed polls throughout the 2024 election cycle. With two weeks to go, he looks in this article in particular at what polls are telling us about the "swing states" - those that are too close to call - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Crosby writes:
We are just two weeks out until the election. One might think we would see a clear frontrunner emerge by this point in the year, but the race remains extremely tight – and will likely go down to the wire.
The National Picture
Nationally, Vice President Harris holds a small lead in several polls, although that lead is sometimes within the polls’ margin of error. For example, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 16-21 showed Vice President Harris holds a small lead among likely voters, with 48% of respondents supporting her, compared to 45% of respondents supporting former President Trump.
Of course, presidents in the United States are not elected using a national popular vote – instead, they are elected using the Electoral College. This system means that certain key swing states will likely decide the election.
Swing State Polls
When we look at key swing states, we see mixed results for both candidates. We have a few different swing state polls that have been conducted recently, including a recent Quinnipiac University poll conducted October 3-7 that examines swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, another Quinnipiac Poll conducted October 10-14 that examines North Carolina and Georgia, and a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted October 7-10 that examines Pennsylvania and Arizona.
In Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Vice President Harris currently maintains a slight lead, although that lead is sometimes within polls’ margin of error. The New York Times/Siena College Poll shows that 49% of likely voters support Vice President Harris, compared to 45% of voters who support former President Trump. Results are quite similar in the Quinnipiac Poll, with Harris leading 49-46%. In North Carolina, the Quinnipiac Poll shows Harris with a 49-47% lead. In each poll, the third-party candidates each garnered 1% or less support.
By contrast, Former President Trump currently leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, although again, that lead is sometimes within polls’ margin of error. In the Quinnipiac Poll, Former President Trump has his largest lead in Georgia, where 52% of likely voters supported Trump, compared to only 45% who supported Harris. Trump’s lead is slightly smaller in Michigan: 50% of likely Michigan voters indicated they supported former President Trump, compared to 47% of likely voters who indicated they supported Vice President Harris. In Wisconsin, Trump also leads, with a smaller still margin: 48-46%. In the Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Arizona, shows Trump has a larger lead: 50-45%. In each poll, third-party candidates each garnered less than 1% support each.
Bottom Line: State of the Race: Too Close to Call
What should a person make of these results? With just two weeks to go, polls in key swing states show there is no clear frontrunner and leads that do exist in polls are within their margin of error. That said, we will likely see at least a few more swing state polls in the coming days and weeks. If you are hoping to make a prediction to your friends, family, or coworkers, make sure to pay particular attention to swing state polls – and of course, make sure to vote!
- Andy Crosby, School of Public Policy
