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Most political polls for the 2024 presidential election saw a close race in the electoral college, and a resounding popular-vote victory for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump won the electoral college 312 to 226, and the popular vote by more than three million votes. We asked polling and survey expert Andy...

Surveyed professors at UC Riverside predict Kamala Harris will prevail in five of seven battleground states, according to a straw poll conducted by UCR’s news team beginning October 25. The poll considered the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The email survey was conducted...

UCR expert Andy Crosby says the polls show swing states divided between Harris and Trump, but within the margin of error.

Shaun Bowler, professor of political science, and Andy Crosby, an assistant professor of teaching in the School of Public Policy, weigh in on how the plethora of state abortion rights initiatives may affect the presidential election.

A polling surge following Kamala Harris's rise to the top of the Democratic ticket, and after the Democratic National Convention, has cooled, according to national presidential polls. Meanwhile, the "13 Keys" prognosticator has weighed in, predicting a Harris win. We asked UC Riverside polling and surveys expert Andy Crosby from...

Prior to the Sept. 10 presidential debate, UC Riverside faculty weigh in on various topics including the now-infamous ‘childless cat ladies’ reference.

A couple weeks back, the 2024 presidential race was upended by the decision of President Joe Biden not to seek reelection. Since, political pundits have scrambled to assess the new Harris-Trump dynamic.

Recent elections in France and the United Kingdom held some surprises and — political scientists say — some lessons for the political parties in the U.S. UK voters ousted the Conservative party in favor of center-left Labour, and French voters, apparently spooked by their initial steps toward the right, voted...

Andy Crosby is the guy you want at your dinner party in the next few months. With about six months until "Decision 2024," he's elbows deep in presidential polls, scouring their methodology, debunking them when necessary. Crosby, who is an assistant professor in the School of Public Policy, became immersed...

In a recent column in The Chronicle of Higher Education, which was subsequently referenced in a New York Times column, UCR Professor Steve Brint considered the ramifications for higher education of a second Donald Trump presidency. Brint is a distinguished professor of sociology and public policy, and author of the...

A journal article forthcoming from the University of Pennsylvania Law Review from two conservative constitutional law experts asserts that Donald Trump's attempts to subvert the outcome of the 2020 presidential election disqualify him from running for president. They cite the 14th Amendment, section three, which was adopted post-Civil War following...

The political divide that led to the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection on the Capitol building has been perpetuated in discourse over how to properly address the role of legislators who may have been involved. On the Jan. 6 anniversary of the insurrection, Michele Salzman, a UC Riverside history professor, published...

Both religious and patriotic messages helped persuade white evangelicals to wear masks to protect against COVID-19. The lessons may carry over to vaccine messaging.

A poll of UC Riverside social sciences professors holds that Gov. Gavin Newsom should prevail in the current recall effort against him. Two committees, RescueCalifornia.org and RecallGavin2020.com, have launched efforts to gain 1.5 million signatures to put a Newsom recall on the ballot. The deadline for submitting signatures is March...

Many low-education voters who embrace social welfare programs vote against their own beliefs, new UC Riverside research holds. The mitigating factor is education: The more education one has, the more likely one is to stick to one’s policy preferences. “It means candidates who employ tactics such as fear and attaching...

As election day morphs into election days, UC Riverside’s students are like voters red and blue alike: seeking comfort where they can find it. “I think everyone wanted a definite result. We did not get that,” said political scientist Shaun Bowler. In a Zoom session on Wednesday morning, more than...

Southern Californians are on board with masks and willing to sacrifice dollars for health. Those are a couple samplings from the findings of a new survey conducted by UCR’s Center for Social Innovation and the Southern California News Group. The residents polled split on a vaccine, with only 48% saying...

UC Riverside political science professors were polled on their predictions for eight battleground states, and the results carry some optimism for the Joe Biden camp.

As American voters wrestle with record-setting anxiety leading up to Nov. 3, forthcoming UCR research says Democratic voters are feeling more angst.

There is a whole new dynamic that pundits, campaign managers, and voters will be negotiating in American politics, and the starting gun has already been fired. That is, the complicated — so says the research — dynamic of how voters regard multiracial candidates. On the national stage, it began with...